The recommitment failed. The three-week BTC ETF outflow reversal of late April did not repair into a clean positive pattern; instead, the same Monday-Wednesday accumulation, Thursday-Friday reversal pattern reappeared for a second consecutive week. MMF assets jumped $122.35 billion in a single week—the largest weekly rise since April 2020—weakening the structural confirmation signal we documented in Issue 4. And the CFTC perpetual futures framework is now approximately ten weeks past Chairman Selig's March 3 commitment, while Kraken closed the $550 million Bitnomial acquisition on May 4 to assume all three CFTC licenses.
Week of May 4 to May 10, 2026
Bitbase Research · May 11, 2026
Market Insights is Bitbase Research's short-wave companion to our Deep Dive flagship series. Each edition reviews the most structurally meaningful developments of the preceding week in compliant crypto derivatives and on-chain native infrastructure, mapped against the long-wave framework set out in our flagship reports. The previous issue documented the first reversal week in our weekly tracking. This issue records that the reversal did not repair: it consolidated. The data points to a market that has entered a higher-frequency two-sided regime ahead of three converging unknowns—Powell's term ending May 15, Warsh's Senate confirmation that week, and the CFTC framework that may or may not arrive before either.
1. The one chart that matters
The two panels capture what the recommitment week actually was. On the left, three weeks of BTC ETF flows are decomposed into their Monday-Wednesday and Thursday-Friday components. Issue 4 documented the unusual pattern of week-of-April-27: Monday-Thursday –$475.87M, rescued by a +$629.73M Friday rebound [1]. This week repeated the structural pattern: Monday-Wednesday accumulated +$1.046 billion in net inflows (May 4 +$532.21M, May 5 +$467.38M, May 6 +$46.3M) only to reverse into Thursday-Friday outflows of approximately –$415 million (May 7 –$268.5M to –$277.5M depending on aggregator; May 8 –$145.64M to –$145.7M) [2][3]. The weekly net of approximately +$631 million is technically the sixth consecutive net-positive week—the longest BTC ETF inflow streak since summer 2025 [4]—but the same Thursday-Friday reversal pattern appearing two weeks running indicates this is no longer one anomalous reversal week, but a regime change. Cumulative net inflows since January 2024 reached $59.3 billion and total category AUM closed at $106.6 billion, representing 6.67% of bitcoin's market capitalization [4]. MSBT (Morgan Stanley) completed its first month since the April 8 launch with no daily net outflow days, contributing cumulative net inflows of $193.6 million [4]. The structural fact, however, is not the headline weekly total but the intra-week mean reversion: institutional flows have shifted to higher frequency, two-sided positioning around macro and policy catalysts.
On the right, ICI's release dated May 7, 2026 reports total MMF assets increased $122.35 billion to $7.745 trillion for the week ended May 6—the largest single-week jump since April 2020 [5][6]. The signal we elevated to "sustained confirmation" status in Issue 4, on the strength of three consecutive readings below the $7.70 trillion structural threshold, has now reversed mechanically: MMF assets sit at the $7.75 trillion diagnostic threshold and decisively above the $7.70 trillion structural level. The framework requires honest downgrade. Critically, however, this is not a clean falsification. The week's surge coincided with renewed U.S.-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz on May 7 [7] and Brent crude trading in a $100-$116 range [8][9], confirming the inflow reflects flight-to-safety geopolitical risk rather than a normalized risk-on rotation. The signal direction has reversed, but the underlying driver is exogenous. We classify the MMF signal as weakened by geopolitical reflux, not as falsified.
2. This week's structural signal
The structural signal of the week is power transition. Three observations link in sequence to a converging point: the formal transition of Federal Reserve leadership on May 15.
First, the data confirms that the prior FOMC meeting was an inflection point, not an aberration. The April 29 FOMC decision—held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% with four dissenting votes, the largest dissent since October 1992—was Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting as Chair [10]. On April 30, Powell announced he would remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends, citing "the series of legal attacks on the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors" [11]. This makes Powell the first ex-Chair to retain a Board seat since Marriner Eccles in 1948 [11]. His Board term runs through January 2028. Same day, the Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh 13-11 along partisan lines—the first fully partisan committee vote on a Fed chair nominee in panel history [12]. Senator John Fetterman publicly indicated he would vote for Warsh, suggesting a clear floor majority [12]; the full Senate vote is scheduled the week of May 11 [13].
Second, the market is pricing this transition. BTC opened the week at approximately $80,200, briefly broke above $82,800 mid-week before being rejected, and closed near $80,700 [14][4]—the first weekly close above $80,000 in three weeks but not a structural reclaim. Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average ($82,228). Treasury yields have moved more on the Iran/oil shock than on Fed succession dynamics; mortgage 30-year fixed fell to 6.23% per Freddie Mac, down from a recent peak of 6.46% [11]. The BTC ETF Thursday-Friday reversal pattern (Section 1 above) is consistent with institutional positioning being unwound or re-hedged ahead of the Senate vote, not with a structural exit. Tom Lee, speaking at Consensus 2026 in Miami May 7, framed the question this way: "You have never been in a bear market if bitcoin closes up three consecutive months. If bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market is definitively over." [15] That language—"definitively over"—reflects how binary positioning has become around May 15.
Third, and most consequentially for our framework: the regulatory vacuum on U.S. perpetual futures persists, while private-sector consolidation continues to fill the void. Chairman Selig's March 3 commitment of a perpetual futures framework "in the next month or so" [16] is now approximately ten weeks overdue with no framework, no staff letter, and no rulemaking published. During the same window, Kraken's parent Payward closed the $550 million Bitnomial acquisition on Monday May 4, becoming the first crypto-native U.S. firm to hold all three CFTC licenses (FCM, DCM, DCO) [17]. Spot margin launches first on Kraken and NinjaTrader; perpetuals and options follow. Co-CEO Arjun Sethi: "The shape of a market is determined by its clearing infrastructure, not its front end." [18] BitMEX's six FX perpetual swap contracts that launched April 29 [19] now anchor a fourth TradFi asset class in the offshore-perpetual segment. Coinbase, in its May 7 Q1 earnings release, disclosed retail derivatives running at $200M+ annualized revenue and prediction markets at $100M+ annualized as of March [20]—confirming the verticals at the center of both the New York Attorney General lawsuit and the CFTC framework debate are now material revenue contributors. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal characterized the lawsuit posture as follows: "This issue is proceeding in New York federal court as we speak. Coinbase will continue to fight for the federal oversight of these markets that Congress intended." [20]
3. Dual-track scoreboard, expanded
Compliant-centralized track. The week's +$631 million BTC ETF net flow extends the streak to six weeks, the longest since summer 2025 [4]. Total category AUM at $106.6 billion places the category in the top tier of U.S.-listed ETFs by assets. MSBT's first-month performance—$193.6 million cumulative net inflows with no daily net outflow days—is the most disciplined launch month of any spot BTC ETF since IBIT's January 2024 debut [4]. Strategy (MSTR) reported Q1 2026 results on May 5: operating loss –$14.5 billion, net loss –$12.8 billion, GAAP EPS –$38.25 (a significant miss against consensus), driven primarily by non-cash mark-to-market losses on bitcoin holdings under ASU 2023-08 fair-value accounting [21][22]. Q1 BTC Yield was 9.4% YTD (vs. 22.8% full year 2025); BTC holdings 818,334 at $61.81 billion aggregate cost; year-to-date capital raised $11.68 billion across ATM and STRC programs [21]. Critically, the May 4 8-K disclosed no BTC purchases during the week ended May 3—the second consecutive zero-purchase week of 2026 [23]. CFO Andrew Kang on the call: "These results were primarily driven by the decline in Bitcoin's fair value during the quarter, and as these are largely non-cash market-driven impacts tied to Bitcoin's quarter-end price, our underlying strategy remains unchanged: raise capital responsibly, buy and hold Bitcoin over the long term, and grow Bitcoin per share for our shareholders." [22] Texas Capital raised the price target to $225 (from $200) citing a 2026 capital issuance outlook of $20 billion (up from $17 billion). Coinbase (COIN) Q1 2026 earnings on May 7 missed badly: revenue $1.41 billion (–21% Q/Q, –31% Y/Y) against consensus $1.48-$1.52 billion; GAAP EPS –$1.49 versus +$0.04 consensus; net loss –$394 million driven by $482 million in unrealized crypto losses [20][24]. The two new growth verticals disclosed—prediction markets at $100M+ annualized and retail derivatives at $200M+ annualized—offset the consumer trading deceleration in narrative terms but not in P&L impact. Adjusted EBITDA $303 million, 13th consecutive positive quarter. COIN closed –2.5% on May 7 with additional pressure in after-hours [25].
On-chain native track. Hyperliquid HIP-3 cooldown extended a second week. Open interest aggregated across HIP-3 deployers declined further from the prior week's $2.10 billion, consistent with platform-level metrics that show HIP-3 representing 27.4% of total Hyperliquid OI and 41.7% of 24-hour volume as of April 29 [26]. Trade[XYZ] continues to dominate (~90% of HIP-3 OI). XYZ100-USDC (the licensed S&P 500 perpetual) holds approximately $213 million in OI [27][28]. Felix Protocol's CL-USDC contract remained in the post-March wind-down profile. Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome contracts (prediction markets) launched on mainnet May 2, with the inaugural daily BTC price prediction market deployed by Outcomexyz—a meaningful precedent for decentralized prediction markets running parallel to Kalshi and Polymarket [29]. HYPE token traded approximately $42.91 on May 10 [30]. No SEC action on the Bitwise BHYP, Grayscale GHYP, 21Shares, or VanEck HYPE ETF filings was published during the week.
TradFi-perpetual & tokenized-RWA layer. No new independent third-party report covering the May 4-10 week was published; BitMEX's Q1 2026 baseline ($30.7 billion weekly TradFi-perpetual volume) remains the reference standard [27]. Trade.xyz exceeded $100 billion cumulative volume since October 2025 launch with annualized run rate above $600 billion (self-disclosed; not independently verified) [28]. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries crossed approximately $20 billion total tokenized RWA on-chain per BlockchainReporter's May 10 roundup [31]. The week's landmark RWA event was May 6: Ondo Finance, JPMorgan's Kinexys, Mastercard's Multi-Token Network, and Ripple's XRP Ledger completed the first near-real-time cross-border atomic settlement of tokenized U.S. Treasuries, using OUSG (partially backed by BlackRock's BUIDL) with RLUSD as the bridge asset [32]. Cross-border settlements of this type traditionally take one to three business days through correspondent banking. ONDO token moved from $0.27 to $0.348 around the announcement (+29%) and reached $0.44 by May 9. The relative USYC-vs-BUIDL positioning we tracked in Issue 4 has converged: BUIDL gained 5.81% W/W to approximately $2.986 billion in stablecoin-adjacent tracking, while USYC at $2.981 billion (+2.68% W/W) sits essentially tied [33]. Stablecoin total market cap reached approximately $322.74 billion, with USDT near $189.6 billion (~58.76% share) and USDC at $77.6 billion [33]. USDG (Paxos Global Dollar Network) led the week's top-10 movers at +11.89% W/W to $2.658 billion.
4. On the radar—week of May 11 to May 17
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Senate floor vote on Warsh confirmation, week of May 11. Full Senate vote anticipated; Fetterman public commitment + GOP 53-seat majority points to confirmation. Treasury yield reaction and dollar reaction at confirmation will be the most directly tradable market signal of the issue.
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Powell's term as Chair ends May 15. First Fed Chair transition since Powell took over in 2018. The transition itself is procedural; the market impact is in the days immediately before and after as positioning resolves.
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NYSE Rule 7.50 comments close May 13. SR-NYSE-2026-17's public comment window expires Wednesday. Material institutional commentary from FIA, BlackRock/Securitize, Citi, BNY, Coinbase, and prediction-market firms is expected. The 60-day SEC suspension window expires June 16. Note: SR-NYSETEX-2026-13 (NYSE Texas, May 5 Federal Register publication) and SR-NYSEARCA-2026-45 (NYSE Arca, May 6 Federal Register publication) both filed parallel tokenized-securities rules with immediate effectiveness during the week [34][35].
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CFTC perpetual framework—ten weeks overdue. Continued silence through Q2 close would represent meaningful delay. Staff letter, no-action position, or formal rulemaking in May or June would shift Signal D status; continued absence hardens it.
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Next Strategy 8-K disclosure. Following the May 4 zero-purchase disclosure, the next purchase 8-K is expected Monday May 11. Three consecutive zero-purchase weeks would mark the longest pause of 2026 and warrant separate signal-tracking treatment.
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Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz status. Trump characterized the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange as a "love tap" while CENTCOM described the action as "intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks" [7]. Operation Project Freedom was paused May 6. The Strait remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic. Brent ended the week near $101/bbl and WTI near $95/bbl following dramatic intra-week ranges [8].
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Hyperliquid HIP-4 and decentralized prediction markets. Following the May 2 mainnet launch, watch for additional outcome-market deployments and any regulatory response—particularly given the active CFTC prediction-market rulemaking and the parallel New York AG action against Coinbase and Gemini.
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Coinbase prediction-market litigation status. Coinbase has removed the case to federal court (April 22); next procedural milestones will shape the CFTC framework debate. CLO Grewal expressed confidence on the May 7 call that the CLARITY Act will reach markup within May.
5. Signal tracking update
Five Deep Dive 1 signals plus three Deep Dive 3 reverse signals remain under continuous audit. Three signals shift state this issue—the largest single-issue state change since we began tracking.
SIGNAL—Deep Dive 1 Part 1: "MMF asset scale inflection point." STATUS: Signal weakened (complicated by geopolitical reflux). Three consecutive weekly readings below $7.70 trillion (April 15, 22, 29) gave way to a single-week +$122.35 billion jump to $7.745 trillion [5][6]. Mechanically the structural threshold is no longer breached; the four-week rolling average is now approximately $7.685 trillion, essentially at the threshold. Critically, the surge correlates with renewed U.S.-Iran clashes May 7 and Brent crude in the $100-$116 range during the week [7][8]. We classify this as a flight-to-safety reflux rather than a normalized risk-on rotation. The framework should be updated to recognize that geopolitical risk exogenously inflates MMF assets in ways that can mask the underlying institutional-rotation thesis. We will continue weekly tracking and report on whether assets revert below threshold once Iran tensions de-escalate. This is the first downgrade of a confirmed signal since we began tracking.
SIGNAL—Deep Dive 1 Part 6: "Whether CME crypto derivatives OI persistently holds above $30B by 2027." STATUS: On track. CME announced bitcoin volatility futures planned for June 1, 2026 launch (subject to regulatory approval) during Consensus 2026 week. No new CME quarterly OI data this week. Signal evaluated against full-year 2026 and 2027 data when published.
SIGNAL—Deep Dive 1 Parts 3 and 6: "Tokenized RWA as common collateral infrastructure." STATUS: Ahead of trajectory. Total tokenized RWA crossed approximately $20 billion on-chain per BlockchainReporter [31]. The May 6 Ondo-JPMorgan-Mastercard-Ripple atomic settlement is the single most institutionally consequential RWA event of 2026 to date—near-real-time cross-border settlement of tokenized Treasuries using OUSG with RLUSD as bridge asset, a function that replaces a one-to-three-business-day correspondent-banking process [32]. The USYC-vs-BUIDL competitive dynamic of Issue 4 has converged: both at roughly $2.98 billion in the latest readings [33]. Stablecoin total market cap $322.74 billion; USDT $189.6B, USDC $77.6B [33].
SIGNAL—Deep Dive 1 Part 6: "Whether the U.S. CFTC approves more licensed entities to offer perpetual swap-style products by 2027." STATUS: Commitment ~10 weeks overdue + private-sector infrastructure consolidation continues. Selig's March 3 commitment of "next month or so" [16] is now approximately ten weeks overdue with no framework, no staff letter, and no rulemaking published. Kraken's parent Payward closed the $550 million Bitnomial acquisition Monday May 4, becoming the first crypto-native U.S. firm to hold all three CFTC licenses (FCM, DCM, DCO) [17][18]. Coinbase Q1 disclosed prediction markets and retail derivatives at $100M+ and $200M+ annualized respectively [20]. The signal direction remains: the underlying licensed-entity infrastructure is being assembled via M&A and self-certification, not via the affirmative framework Selig promised. The CFTC still operates with one Senate-confirmed commissioner.
SIGNAL—Deep Dive 1 Part 6: "Whether perpetual DEX annual trading volume holds above $5 trillion in 2026." STATUS: On track at headline; composition continues to shift. Hyperliquid HIP-3 OI continued cooling (now at 27.4% of total Hyperliquid OI per investing.com [26]). HIP-4 outcome-contracts launched mainnet May 2 [29]—a new product category within the same platform. Aggregate Perp DEX volume direction continues to support the $5 trillion threshold, but the internal composition is now more diverse than at the start of the year.
SIGNAL (Deep Dive 3 Reverse Signal A)—Market-share concentration above 70%. STATUS: No model concentration breach. BitMEX Q1 attribution (Binance 62.7%, Hyperliquid 29.7% [27]) remains the most recent independent reading. No new third-party data this week. BitMEX FX perpetual launches and Kraken-Bitnomial close extend Model 1 and Model 5 infrastructure respectively but do not concentrate either above 70%. The five-model coexistence thesis from Deep Dive 3 holds.
SIGNAL (Deep Dive 3 Reverse Signal B)—Cross-architecture unified regulatory framework. STATUS: No unified framework published. CFTC perpetual guidance pending (see Signal D1-Part 6 above). ESMA, FCA, MAS, JFSA: no unified statement issued during the week. The five-model regulatory divergence documented in Deep Dive 3 remains the state of record.
SIGNAL (Deep Dive 3 Reverse Signal C)—Model 5 regulatory failure. STATUS: Further strengthened non-confirmation. The Kraken-Bitnomial close on May 4 is the single most consequential Model 5 event since Deep Dive 3's April 23 publication [17]. No transaction has been blocked, unwound, or restructured. NYSE Rule 7.50 comments close May 13 with SR-NYSETEX-2026-13 and SR-NYSEARCA-2026-45 also entering Federal Register immediate effectiveness during this week [34][35]. ICE-OKX joint venture target remains H2 2026. Model 5 viability as a near-term convergence rail is empirically strengthened, not weakened.
We will continue tracking each signal against weekly data arrival and publish the first consolidated Signal Tracking report in Q4 2026.
References
[1] The Market Periodical, "Bitcoin ETFs See $138M Outflows as Ethereum ETFs Lose $87.7M," April 30, 2026. https://themarketperiodical.com/2026/04/30/bitcoin-etfs-see-138m-outflows-as-ethereum-etfs-lose-87-7m/
[2] CryptoRank, "US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Extend Outflow Streak to Two Days as Institutional Caution Grows," May 9, 2026. https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/2ce14-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-outflows-may-8
[3] Ainvest, "Bitcoin ETF Flows: The $268.5M Outflow Test," May 8, 2026. https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-etf-flows-268-5m-outflow-test-2605/
[4] The Block, "Morgan Stanley's bitcoin ETF absorbs $194 million in first month with no net daily outflows," May 10, 2026. Cumulative net inflows since January 2024 launch reached $59.3 billion; total category AUM $106.6 billion; MSBT $193.6 million cumulative net inflows. https://www.theblock.co/post/400650/morgan-stanleys-bitcoin-etf-absorbs-194-million-in-first-month-with-no-net-daily-outflows
[5] ICI, "Money Market Fund Assets," release dated May 7, 2026 (data for week ended May 6). Total assets $7.745 trillion, up $122.35 billion from prior week. https://www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf
[6] Bloomberg, "Money-Market Assets Notch Biggest Weekly Jump Since April 2020," May 7, 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/money-market-fund-assets-jump-122b-most-since-april-2020-ici
[7] CNBC, "U.S. and Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz; each claims other shot first," May 7, 2026. U.S. Central Command reported "intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes"; Trump characterized strikes as "just a love tap." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/iran-war-hormuz-strait-ceasefire-trump.html
[8] TradingEconomics, Brent and WTI crude oil charts, accessed May 10, 2026. Brent ranged $100-116/bbl; WTI ~$95-106/bbl over the week. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
[9] Fortune, "Current price of oil as of May 7, 2026." Brent $100.45 down sharply on prospective peace headlines. https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-05-07-2026/
[10] CNBC, "Fed interest rate decision April 2026: Fed holds rates steady amid dissent," April 29, 2026. 8-4 vote held funds rate at 3.50-3.75%; largest dissent since October 1992. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html
[11] CNN, "Powell confirms he will step aside at the end of his term as chair but remain on the Fed's board," April 29, 2026. Direct quote: "The series of legal attacks on the Fed... I had long planned to be retiring. The things that have happened really in the last three months have, I think, left me no choice but to stay until I see them through." https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate
[12] CNBC, "Trump Fed pick Kevin Warsh clears key Senate hurdle, teeing up final vote," April 29, 2026. Senate Banking Committee advanced Warsh 13-11 along partisan lines—first fully partisan committee vote on a Fed chair nominee in panel history. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/trump-fed-nominee-kevin-warsh-senate-approval.html
[13] Kiplinger, "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination: Live Updates and Commentary," May 2026. Full Senate vote scheduled the week of May 11, 2026. https://www.kiplinger.com/news/live/kevin-warsh-fed-nomination
[14] CoinDesk, "Bitcoin stalls near $80,000. Stocks and ETF inflows still point to a breakout," May 4, 2026. BTC opened at ~$80,200; weekly high ~$82,800; weekly low ~$78,900. https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/05/04/bitcoin-stalls-near-usd80-000-stocks-and-etf-inflows-still-point-to-a-breakout
[15] CoinDesk, "Bitcoin price news: BTC closing May over $76,000 would confirm bull market, Tom Lee says," May 7, 2026. Quoted at Consensus 2026, Miami. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/07/bitcoin-ending-may-above-usd76-000-would-confirm-new-bull-market-tom-lee-says
[16] CoinDesk, "CFTC Chief Selig to Clear Path for U.S. Perpetual Futures in Coming Weeks," March 3, 2026. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/03/03/cftc-chief-selig-to-clear-path-for-u-s-perpetual-futures-in-coming-weeks
[17] The Block, "Kraken parent Payward completes Bitnomial acquisition, unlocking US crypto derivatives offering," May 4, 2026. $550 million acquisition closed May 4; Payward holds all three CFTC licenses (FCM, DCM, DCO)—first crypto-native U.S. firm to do so. https://www.theblock.co/post/399851/kraken-parent-payward-completes-bitnomial-acquisition
[18] Invezz, "Kraken secures rare CFTC trifecta after closing Bitnomial acquisition," May 4, 2026. Arjun Sethi quote on clearing infrastructure. https://invezz.com/news/2026/05/04/kraken-secures-rare-cftc-trifecta-after-closing-bitnomial-acquisition/
[19] The Manila Times / GlobeNewswire, "BitMEX Expands TradFi Perpetual Swaps with FX for 24/7 Crypto Trading," April 29, 2026. Six FX perpetual swap contracts: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCNH. https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/04/29/tmt-newswire/globenewswire/bitmex-expands-tradfi-perpetual-swaps-with-fx-for-247-crypto-trading/2331416/amp
[20] Coinbase Global Inc., Q1 2026 Earnings 8-K and Shareholder Letter, filed May 7, 2026. Revenue $1.41B; GAAP EPS –$1.49; net loss –$394M; retail derivatives $200M+ annualized; prediction markets $100M+ annualized; Grewal quote on NY AG lawsuit. SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001679788/000167978826000053/q126earningsdeck-finalse.htm
[21] Strategy Inc., "Strategy Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results," May 5, 2026. Operating loss –$14.5B; net loss –$12.8B; GAAP EPS –$38.25; Q1 BTC Yield 9.4% YTD; 818,334 BTC held at $61.81B aggregate cost. https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results\_05-05-2026
[22] Insider Monkey, "Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript," May 5, 2026. Phong Le and Andrew Kang quotes. https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/strategy-inc-nasdaqmstr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript-1754900/
[23] Investing.com, "Strategy didn't purchase bitcoin last week," May 4, 2026. 8-K disclosure of zero BTC purchases for week ended May 3, 2026—second consecutive pause of 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/strategy-didnt-purchase-bitcoin-last-week-432SI-4655883
[24] TIKR, "Coinbase Q1 2026 Earnings: Revenue Down 21%, But Derivatives and Stablecoins Are Gaining," May 7, 2026. Consensus comparison and earnings detail. https://www.tikr.com/blog/coinbase-q1-2026-earnings-revenue-down-21-but-derivatives-and-stablecoins-are-gaining
[25] CNBC, "Coinbase (COIN) earnings Q1 2026," May 7, 2026. Stock closed –2.5% on May 7; additional after-hours pressure. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/coinbase-coin-earnings-q1-2026.html
[26] Investing.com, "Hyperliquid Strategies Q3 2026 slides: HYPE gains fuel earnings," April 29, 2026. HIP-3 represented 27.4% of total Hyperliquid OI ($2.07B) and 41.7% of 24-hour volume ($2.42B). https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/hyperliquid-strategies-q3-2026-slides-hype-gains-fuel-earnings-93CH-4670924
[27] BitMEX (Shang Wu), "Q1 2026 Derivatives Report: The TradFi Perpetual Swap Revolution," April 9, 2026. TradFi perpetual weekly volume $30.7B; Binance 62.7% market share; Hyperliquid 29.7%. https://www.bitmex.com/blog/2026q1-derivatives-report
[28] CoinDesk, "Hyperliquid's tokenized futures hit $1.2B as traders bet on oil, stocks," March 10, 2026. Trade.xyz volume metrics baseline. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/10/hyperliquid-s-permissionless-market-smashes-usd1-2-billion-in-open-positions-as-oil-and-equity-futures-boom
[29] CoinGecko, "Hyperliquid's HIP-3 & HIP-4: Tokenized Stocks and Prediction Markets," May 2026. HIP-4 launched mainnet May 2, 2026; inaugural daily BTC price prediction market by Outcomexyz. https://www.coingecko.com/learn/hyperliquid-hip3-hip4-tokenized-stocks-and-prediction-markets
[30] CoinDesk, "Bitwise files updated S-1 for Hyperliquid ETF as HYPE fund race heats up," April 11, 2026. HYPE token context. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/11/bitwise-files-updated-s-1-for-hyperliquid-etf-as-hype-fund-race-heats-up
[31] BlockchainReporter, "Weekly Tokenization Roundup—May 10, 2026: RWA Hits $20B," May 10, 2026. Total tokenized RWA on-chain crossed approximately $20 billion. https://blockchainreporter.net/weekly-tokenization-roundup-bullish-buys-equiniti-for-4-2b-ondo-settles-with-jpmorgan-rwa-crosses-20b/
[32] BlockchainReporter, "Weekly Tokenization Roundup—May 10, 2026," May 10, 2026. Ondo Finance, JPMorgan Kinexys, Mastercard Multi-Token Network, and Ripple XRP Ledger completed the first near-real-time cross-border atomic settlement of tokenized U.S. Treasuries May 6 using OUSG with RLUSD as bridge asset. https://blockchainreporter.net/weekly-tokenization-roundup-bullish-buys-equiniti-for-4-2b-ondo-settles-with-jpmorgan-rwa-crosses-20b/
[33] Bitcoin News, "Stablecoin Market Adds $2 Billion in 7 Days as USDT Holds Near $190 Billion," May 2026. Total stablecoin market cap $322.74 billion; USDT $189.6B; USDC $77.6B; USDG +11.89% W/W; USYC and BUIDL essentially tied at ~$2.98B. https://news.bitcoin.com/stablecoin-market-adds-2-billion-in-7-days-as-usdt-holds-near-190-billion/
[34] Federal Register, "Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Texas, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To Amend the Exchange's Rules To Enable the Trading of Securities on the Exchange in Tokenized Form," May 5, 2026. Doc. 2026-08679. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/05/05/2026-08679/self-regulatory-organizations-nyse-texas-inc-notice-of-filing-and-immediate-effectiveness-of
[35] Federal Register, "Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change," May 6, 2026. Doc. 2026-08786. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/05/06/2026-08786/self-regulatory-organizations-nyse-arca-inc-notice-of-filing-and-immediate-effectiveness-of-proposed
The next Market Insights issue covers the week of May 11 to May 17, 2026—the week of the Senate Warsh confirmation vote and Powell's term ending. Market Insights is published by Bitbase Research alongside our Deep Dive flagship series.
