Author: Morning Minute
Translation: TechFlow
TechFlow Introduction: Hyperliquid just proved itself in June with $50 billion in prediction market trading volume, and now it's opening this business to everyone—as long as you dare to stake $30 million. This is a typical crypto world playbook: replace licenses with real money, letting the market, not the platform, decide who survives.
Hyperliquid is turning prediction markets into a business anyone can participate in.
The exchange says its recent HIP-4 upgrade's subsequent enhancements will allow anyone to deploy prediction markets on the platform. HIP-4 introduced "outcome trading" in May, but currently these markets are entirely controlled by validators. Hyperliquid says that in the future, "ideally" fewer than 10 markets per year will be run by validators, with the rest open to everyone. The feature will first launch on testnet, then mainnet.
Anyone wanting to launch a market must stake 500,000 HYPE (about $30 million), a serious bond that can be slashed if validators deem the market poorly defined or incorrectly settled. In exchange, deployers can earn up to 50% of the market's trading fees. This mirrors the economic design of its permissionless perpetual contracts: put up real money, make money if you run a good market, lose your stake if you mess up. This is a stark contrast to Polymarket and Kalshi, where each market is defined top-down by the platform.
This is a timely move, as prediction markets just had their hottest summer ever. The World Cup helped the industry reach $50 billion in betting volume in June, and July is on track to be even higher ($37 billion so far). Of that $50 billion, Kalshi is the clear market leader with $33 billion (66% market share). Hyperliquid only did $176 million—so they have a long way to go to make a substantial dent in this space.
Hyperliquid's answer is to open-source the category, turning prediction markets into another permissionless infrastructure rather than a curated product. But they are not a platform to be underestimated; Hyperliquid has already been breaking DEX volume records, prompting JPMorgan to warn about its threat to Circle, and simultaneously lobbying the SEC and CFTC. If the permissionless model works, it could help them truly make waves. We'll find out soon.
Macro, Crypto & Markets
Crypto majors closed the week up 2-5%; BTC +3% to $64.6K; ETH +6% to $1,885; SOL +1% to $76.60; HYPE -7% to $60.80
PUMP (+27%), INJ (+10%), and VVV (+9%) led the week's gains
Oil -4% to $80 after progress in Iran talks; Gold +1% to $4,024
Stock index futures higher as oil sells off; Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.7%
Michael Saylor calls Bitcoin's BIP-110 proposal "a bad idea," arguing the anti-spam plan would set a precedent for censorship, "the proposed cure is more dangerous than the disease"
Galaxy Digital signs a 15-year naming rights agreement to rename Texas Tech University's football stadium to "Galaxy Stadium," continuing crypto's march into college sports
Project Eleven introduces a technology that allows users to prove wallet ownership even after quantum computers can derive private keys
GENIUS Act turns one year old, regulators miss rulemaking deadline, but the framework will be fully effective by July 2028
Institutional Flows & ETFs
Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $132M on Friday, $75M for the week; Ethereum ETFs saw $37M on Friday, $105M for the week
Meme Coin Tracker
Meme leaders mostly flat or up over the past week; DOGE flat, SHIB -1%, PEPE +5%, PENGU +4%, TRUMP +1%, BONK -23%
Robinhood chain led by Stonkbroker (+160%), REAL (+200x), and FOX (+70%); Cashcat +22% to $72M
Solana leaders include AVA (+30%) and Cubeman (+85%); ANSEM +5% to $198M
Tokens, Airdrops & Protocol Tracker
Pump Fun's PUMP token leads altcoins, up 26% this week as unlock wave begins
Cross-chain protocol Allbridge pauses after $1.65M flash loan attack that manipulated its Solana pool ratio, the latest in a wave of DeFi attacks
NFT Dynamics
NFT leaders slightly down; Punks flat at 32 ETH, BAYC -2% to 8.65 ETH, Pudgy -5% to 4.06 ETH; Hypurr's flat at 188 HYPE
Stonkbrokers (+125%) and Funkari (+30%) lead gains
Pudgy Penguins officially launches plush toys at Target stores across the US
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