Author: Forbes
Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
In 2026, Bitcoin has had a tough journey, failing to hold its historical high of over $126,000 reached last year. Despite multiple positive signals from US President Trump, Bitcoin's price has fallen more than 50% since October last year. However, many analysts point out that a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve may be brewing a turnaround.
Just as BlackRock's CEO released the latest 12-month Bitcoin price prediction, Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas provided a highly insightful comparison: the Bitcoin ETF army is likely to make Bitcoin's price trajectory "mirror" the "triumphs and pains" of gold over the past 20-plus years.
Balchunas posted on X platform: "The 22-year history of gold ETFs may be the closest roadmap for Bitcoin ETF investors." Since the launch of gold ETFs in 2004, gold prices have soared, with the total market cap now approaching $28 trillion. This figure alone is enough to spark market imagination—if Bitcoin can replicate part of gold's success, its potential upside would be extremely significant.
He further analyzed: "Both gold and Bitcoin are packaged products as non-yield stores of value. They generate no cash flow, and price drivers rely entirely on investor sentiment, unlike traditional stocks' profitability, bonds' coupons, or government credit endorsements."
Over the past 20-plus years, gold ETFs have experienced dramatic ups and downs: briefly becoming the world's largest ETF in 2011, then falling into an eight-year slump before struggling to recover. Balchunas believes Bitcoin ETFs are playing out a similar script—"amazing gains, painful pullbacks, and a recovery phase requiring extreme patience." Notably, each cycle of gold ETFs has raised historical highs, which is particularly encouraging for long-term Bitcoin holders.
Looking back at the development of Bitcoin ETFs: In early 2024, after more than a decade of persistent push by the crypto community, spot Bitcoin ETFs finally received approval to enter the market. Wall Street institutions rushed in, and several top funds quickly became the fastest-growing ETFs in history. This not only marked Bitcoin's transition from a fringe asset to mainstream finance but also set the stage for subsequent price volatility.
However, volatility has always been present. Earlier this month, analysts from Bitfinex exchange warned that a "shocking" large-scale ETF outflow could directly interrupt the current rebound. Bitcoin has recovered nearly 10% from its low of below $57,000 in early July, but the market remains highly vigilant.
As the absolute leader in the Bitcoin ETF space, BlackRock's IBIT fund has sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoins in recent months to cope with redemption pressure, still holding over 733,000 Bitcoins with an asset size close to $50 billion. This also reflects the liquidity characteristics of institutional funds—inflows and outflows can trigger significant market reactions.
Despite the significant price correction this year, many long-term bulls remain confident. They generally believe Bitcoin is poised for a long-term boom comparable to gold. Balchunas himself emphasized the "spiritual parallel" between the two: "Gold quickly became popular, briefly surpassing the world's largest ETF SPY in 2011, then fell out of favor for years. IBIT similarly peaked at $100 billion in assets in one day—that was exactly the top in October 2025. Both have nearly fixed supply, and when demand concentrates, it can trigger price explosions. But the problem is that demand is often fickle, coming in waves rather than being stable and sustained."
From the perspective of seasoned crypto industry observers, this comparison is highly relevant. Gold has achieved long-term value anchoring through scarcity, safe-haven attributes, and global recognition; Bitcoin, with its halving mechanism, decentralized network, and increasing institutional adoption, exhibits similar "digital gold" characteristics. The emergence of ETFs has further lowered the barrier to holding, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without directly holding Bitcoin, which undoubtedly amplifies demand elasticity.
Currently, the market remains optimistic about the resilience of ETF demand. Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, noted: "Institutional demand remains one of Bitcoin's strongest pillars. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see steady inflows, while more companies are incorporating digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest has effectively alleviated selling pressure during recent market corrections."
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory will be heavily influenced by the macro environment, regulatory dynamics, and institutional behavior. Gold's market cap has already reached nearly $28 trillion. If Bitcoin can gradually occupy a similar "store of value" position, even if only a fraction of gold's market cap, it would bring extremely significant appreciation potential. Of course, the process will inevitably involve violent fluctuations—this is the essence of the crypto market's "high risk, high return."
For ordinary investors, the key is to stay rational, diversify risks, and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term noise. Bitcoin's story is far from over. With more traditional capital entering and infrastructure improving, the prelude to this "price explosion" may have just begun. From gold to Bitcoin: fixed supply + institutional frenzy, could it replay the "explosive" price scenario?
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is not investment advice. BlockWeeks.com does not assume any responsibility for investments made based on the information provided in this article. We strongly recommend conducting independent research or consulting qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
